Kasparov: UKRAINE MUST WIN!
2025 CEEQA Live Connect meeting, Warsaw 20 May
Influential political commentator and former world chess champion, Garry Kasparov, widely regarded as the greatest-of-al-time chess player, eviscerated Russian dictator live online at the 2025 CEEQA Live Connect meeting on 20 May at the Bristol Hotel Warsaw.
“Ukraine must win, which means Russia must be defeated. Either Putin succeeds, or he has to be destroyed,” declared Kasparov at CEEQA Live Connect meeting on 20 May 2025.
It is a war with Europe, he argued, and Ukrainians are on the front line fighting for the free world. Putin’s aim is the destruction of Ukrainian state-hood, Ukraine doesn’t exist on Putin’s world map.
It’s not a game of chess, Kasparov emphasised, it’s a game of poker which Ukraine and Europe must win, but Europe needs to step up and start acting as if it is at war. The problem, he said, is that you can win at poker with a weak hand, implying the risk of not stepping up.
“You don’t win the war by consensus, you win the war by fighting, and Europe’s political structure is proving incapable of dealing with the war challenge.”
Kasparov also shared the news with guests at the meeting that he has been indicted by Russia as a terrorist, some might view as a badge of honour in the current political climate.
The meeting was hosted by Polish broadcaster and journalist Monika Richardson and chaired by CEEQA chairman Richard Hallward as part of the 2025 edition of the annual CEEQA real estate showcase event and industry awards.
The real estate situation
The third edition of Live Connect was attended by a select group of Ukraine and CEE real estate leaders to hear the views of Kasparov and share an update on ongoing challenges and continuing activity in the war-torn Ukraine real estate market place, and CEE & Europe sentiment.
Guest speakers from Ukraine included:
ANDRIY BRYNZYLO CEO, Argo Capital Property Ukraine
ANNA CHUBOTINA CEO, Arricano
GANNA KORYAGINA International Commercial Director, Nhood
MAKSYM GAVRYUSHYN COO, Budhouse Group
VOLODYMYR TYMOCHKO Managing Director Private Equity, Dragon Capital
Retail, housing and logistics investment appetite despite the war
Discussing the mood and practicalities of new investments in Kyiv in the context of Dragon Capital’s recent acquisition of Karavan Outlet Mall, Tymochko related “We like malls, they’re performing better than any other sector… we’re in a state of war but turnover per sqm and OCR is quite strong.”
Gavryushyn shared the UCSC retail well-being index applying composite statistics for footfall, vacancy and rental rates demonstrating recovery since 2022 to 85% of pre-war figures, under-pinning ongoing investment appetite particularly in Kyiv and the west of Ukraine. Since the war began 21 shopping centres have opened and a further 35 are in the development pipeline. “As a result Ukraine retail is still attractive for investment,” he confirmed.
Ganna Koryagina of Nhood described the company’s involvement in the commercialisation of the planned retail 110,000 sqm GLA Ocean Mall project in Kyiv, being developed by Mandarin Plaza Group, as positive. She said Mandarin Plaza continues to pursue a series of mega malls with a pipeline of 200 million sqm.
Fundamentals prevail
Visiting guest Oleg Fedulin of EBRD outlined why commitment priorities for the bank remained in critical infrastructure, which includes to some extent living and logistics segments, with investment fundamentals still prevailing in decision making of the bank. “But [in the context of the war] we do feel the push,” he said.
Brynzylo argued the important task for the entire market is affordable housing, with housing damage since the outset of the war estimated at $60 billion according to the Kyiv School of Economics, whereas damage to the the entire retail asst sector is around $0.5 billion. Regarding general investment appetite and strategy, despite underlying need and demand, he said “You can not use the logic in Ukraine that is applicable in CEE,” factoring in risk; “it’s an absolutely different game.”
In retail, Brynzylo related how the market is performing much better than people could imagine, although social impacts caused by the war have affected consumption power, such as military recruitment impact on footfall, and touristic consumption. Getting things done, the engagement of the EBRD real estate team is singularly vital in all aspects, he summarised.
What about office?
From the CEE investor standpoint, HB Reavis CEO Marcel Sedlak, a guest at the meeting, proposed that “in the mid-term and long-term the current depressed supply amid multiple challenges on the demand side is likely accumulating opportunities for the future, when we all believe that things will doubtless change dramatically for the good.” It’s just a question of time, he said.
Tymochko shared that Dragon currently has 150,000 sqm of office space in its portfolio, of around 600,000 sqm in total, mostly retail. In office he said that in the circumstances there is naturally low demand, very low rent very and high vacancies, meaning net negative rent, with the class B segment the most affected. He also related that location is important in the analyses, factoring in the risk of shelling, and described how in December the fund lost a class A business centre, which was targeted.
“However,” he said, “things are better than they could have been and there are many good things happening over the past year. For example, we have more risk insurance available, including insurance against shelling. It’s costly, but available.”
Another factor Tymochko urged guests to keep in mind is that “there are not so many distressed opportunities on the market, at the outset of the ward market players were not over-leveraged, as opposed to the crisis of 2008 or even the crisis of 2015, and the devaluation of the local currency has not been as bad as it could have been. So the opportunities are not there to acquire because there are no foreclosures.”
“I think the recovery will happen after the victory, sooner or later.” he concluded.
Transparency, signs of progress
Regarding the elephant in the room, Tymochko said: “I know corruption is on the mind of international investors, from our point of view things have improved dramatically in many aspects.
It’s still far from European standards but in our day-to-day business operations we do not have to take these decisions, if you are not doing anything illegal you don’t have to deal with corruption. In general I think this is over-blown.”
Dead or alive
Tymochko confirmed they have made some sales from the Dragon portfolio, all to local buyers, where liquidity is key in the country. In terms of international capital, he shared that there has been a dramatic increase in interest in Ukraine since last year, which is making life more interesting.
Anna Chubotina said the estimated remaining population is difficult to calibrate but is probably around 35 million, however residential numbers for Kyiv appear to be around the same as pre-war time because of internal migration. In regional cities more exposed to the war like Zaporizhzhia and Kryvyi Rih where Arricano holds retail assets, she guessed population has probably decreased by around 20-30% based purely on retail strength.
“The situation depends on where your project is,” continued Chubotina. “For example, our projects in Zaporizhzhia, which is less than 40km from the front line, and in Kryvyi Rih about 80km from the front line, the situation is very different from Kyiv where we achieved results are more or less at pre-war levels. Our project Kyiv Prospekt, in the previous year, was one of the best since its opening in 2014 in terms of income levels.”
She also shared photos of the restoration of Arricano’s Sun Gallery mall in Kryvyi Rih after a missile attack in January 2024, and the surprising statistic that the the company’s City Mall in Zaporizhzhia currently enjoys a 100% occupancy rate despite a 50% drop in income amid continuing air raids and shelling that can take up to half of working hours – all of which, together, shows the potential of these cities which we believe will have a great future if it will be supported on the national level and by institutions like EBRD.
As an example, where there is only one large shopping centre in the region it plays an important role in the local community and is very important for the overall economic situation.
Challenges, but plenty to play for
“In summary,” concluded Gavryushyn, “the office segment is dead, logistics is half dead, retail is surviving and housing is booming.”
The resilience and ingenuity of the Ukrainian people, and its real estate market, knows know bounds.
